This is a question which far too few people seem to be asking, especially those involved in planning. Numerous planning and strategy documents exists which set targets for the future economy of the city, research the need for housing, gauge the future demand on infrastructure etc. but alarmingly very few planning documents in any of South Africa’s municipalities attempt to take a complete view of the future. More often than not, these documents produce a glimpse at only one aspect of the future, such as population growth, and employment growth, but stop short of interpreting what that really entails for the future of our cities.

With regards to transport, what would happen to our roads if the population of Nelson Mandela Bay had to increase by 30%?

RAMP Economics has assisted with a simple model on private automobile ownership for 2019, 2029, and 2039. The model forecasts population growth while maintaining the same distribution of income, employment, and vehicle ownership ratios.

It is estimated that in 2019 there are 346 877 households in Nelson Mandela Bay. The most recent vehicle ownership statistics shows that only 36% of households possess a private automobile. That equates to 123 534 households. Note that this is not the total number of cars, but merely the number of households that own a car. As many households will own more than one automobile this represents the absolute minimum number.

At current population growth rates, by 2029 the population of Nelson Mandela Bay is forecast to reach ± 1.38 million people and ± 401 000 households. Assuming the same distribution of car ownership, this will result in an increase of at least 19 400 cars on our roads. By 2039, just 20 years from now, conservative estimates show an increase of 41 700 car owning households. This represents a 33% increase in the number of personal automobiles.

More alarming is that these figures do not consider any improvements in quality of life, household income, employment etc. No government, no municipality, and indeed no community wishes for things to merely stay the same. It is far too often a failing of public sector planning that no consideration is given to the possibility that the planning may, in fact, render a positive result! So let us assume that over the next 20 years, the Nelson Mandela Bay economy will improve, jobs will be created, communities uplifted, and household incomes increase. Now what?

It is only logical to conclude that, if nothing changes, more people will wish to purchase cars should their incomes rise. Across all strata of our society car ownership is as much a status symbol and an aspirational goal. So what happens to car ownership if unemployment is reduced by 10%, or incomes rise by 10%. We’ll save the detailed analysis for another time, but it should be clear that regardless of what happens over the coming years that there will be a lot more cars on our roads.

So how do we prepare for this? Well one thing is for sure, building more roads and freeways will not be sufficient to address the problem of rising traffic. A future blog will delve deep into this topic and demonstrate why the development of more road capacity does not solve traffic problems.

Across the world major cities have grappled with this same issue and increasingly are abandoning the outdated car-centric view on planning. More and more, cities are acknowledging the critical role of public transport and cycling in reducing traffic and moving people about our cities safely and efficiently.

Like its larger cousins, and like so many major cities around the world, Nelson Mandela Bay will have to face the consequences of rising populations sooner or later. Fortunately, and this can not be said of many cities around the world, Nelson Mandela Bay has the opportunity to solve the problems of tomorrow before they even occur. It was not long ago that Nelson Mandela Bay was regarded as the 15 minute city. While this may not be strictly true anymore, with adequate planning and smart investment Nelson Mandela Bay can quite easily cement itself as the most convenient city for travel in South Africa.